Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 78583.786041 83001.113911 87421.575168 92173.952398 97135.487494 102159.398515 107627.839305
2025-12-21 71246.064376 77966.219105 84882.079684 92521.662102 100714.398452 109226.859249 118730.422310
2025-12-28 66846.191085 75219.768895 84027.950225 93964.223810 104841.072227 116365.333343 129478.353043
2026-01-04 63245.051493 72857.954674 83156.982021 94979.346075 108141.615885 122311.663920 138685.705494
2026-01-11 60093.287454 70674.709670 82195.425941 95622.631062 110792.049519 127348.411835 146733.422919
2026-01-18 57112.247060 68449.340829 80974.859837 95774.859855 112716.308113 131434.315777 153607.728521
2026-01-25 54564.644675 66544.938210 79960.380895 96011.886856 114606.495758 135379.342554 160246.615128
2026-02-01 52113.248463 64608.955405 78779.858700 95935.389199 116030.944150 138711.580755 166126.795344
2026-02-08 50381.112645 63416.810222 78373.386270 96675.657016 118332.591127 143003.500247 173086.369739
2026-02-15 48383.042683 61809.801869 77390.604888 96655.983857 119675.895783 146134.051887 178666.880525
2026-02-22 47277.893706 61217.685940 77561.179556 97960.490865 122550.239942 151039.345831 186331.926382
2026-03-01 46043.187028 60406.979547 77416.839789 98841.877630 124887.458606 155295.548762 193235.471215
2026-03-08 44407.605768 59057.174938 76585.204834 98869.998131 126196.057711 158349.278578 198758.638790
2026-03-15 43015.336156 57959.463744 76018.162556 99183.959862 127825.774849 161778.469070 204743.791782
2026-03-22 42303.951082 57685.782942 76441.949180 100698.377061 130913.047346 166970.551814 212881.866133
2026-03-29 41430.804685 57167.978383 76529.511047 101769.714983 133440.813135 171484.591682 220217.690102
2026-04-05 40429.826656 56446.670366 76327.383961 102449.696978 135464.621616 175378.093625 226808.449297
2026-04-12 39250.107329 55451.506303 75740.596338 102610.608885 136815.136380 178431.381632 232369.864556
2026-04-19 38173.825826 54555.308689 75247.512209 102861.343646 138256.874827 181587.129813 238062.485141
2026-04-26 37009.346783 53504.461135 74520.467217 102780.404655 139253.867153 184175.563149 243049.741150
2026-05-03 36268.632496 52995.213023 74476.071350 103563.550141 141342.115417 188129.956253 249759.622826
2026-05-10 35230.924136 52052.477519 73834.111737 103542.737845 142379.312246 190752.578962 254800.846019
2026-05-17 34808.729993 51932.661573 74266.949462 104922.661473 145225.053169 195674.021713 262771.323036